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Beijing has sent its maritime law enforcement through the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past outlying Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up tensions following the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its vessels carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the latest activity occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

China claims the island as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An attack or invasion by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the United States and other partner nations including Japan, which has land just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was likely the maritime patrol, active near the territory over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones operating near the island and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, seeming to travel unusually near to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said Beijing had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. The island reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other powers, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards the island.